San José State vs. USC: the Spartans are coming for Troy… probably not

There is something beautiful about Week 0.

No one has lost yet. Every fan base is convinced this is the year. Every quarterback is a Heisman candidate, every transfer is a steal, and every team that won three games last season has somehow fixed everything over the summer.

And every once in a while, Week 0 gives us exactly what college football is supposed to give us: chaos.

So naturally, I have decided that San José State is going to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the opening weekend.

That's right.

The Spartans are heading into the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, staring down the No. 14 team in the country, and I am officially planting my flag.

San José State is going to shock USC.

Luke Weaver is going to walk into the Coliseum and immediately look like the quarterback we have all been waiting for. The Spartans are going to come out firing, USC is going to look confused, Lincoln Riley is going to start pacing the sideline, and somewhere around the second quarter, the Trojan faithful are going to start wondering if maybe they should have stayed home.

San José State will score first.

I can feel it.

And then… allow 30-plus unanswered points.

Let's be serious. San José State is probably going to get absolutely demolished. Now, this does make me sad as a Group of Six fanboy, but we've got to be realistic.

Unfortunately, the Spartans went 3-9 last season, allowing more than 32 points a game, with tons of overhaul on offense. That is not exactly the recipe you would normally use to cook up a blockbuster upset. But hey, college football has been gone for a long seven months, and we're ready to watch future NFL players and insurance salesmen share the field together in the greatest game on earth.

But — and this is where Week 0 gets fun — I don't think San José State gets embarrassed immediately.

In fact, I think the Spartans might give us exactly what every underdog fan wants to see. An opening drive.

The first two drives might have us believing

Picture it:

USC wins the toss. The Coliseum is loud, but it isn't quite in full panic mode yet. It's the first game of the season. Everyone is excited. Everyone is optimistic.

San José State's defense comes out and forces a punt. The Spartans take over.

Luke Weaver completes a couple of quick throws. The running game finds a crease. Suddenly San José State is across midfield.

Maybe they even put points on the board. A field goal. Maybe a touchdown.

And for about five minutes, every San José State fan in California starts thinking the impossible.

Wait. Are we actually doing this?

This is where the Week 0 magic comes in.

USC hasn't played a real game yet. Its timing isn't perfect. Its receivers are still finding their rhythm. The defense is learning how all its pieces fit together.

Meanwhile, San José State has absolutely nothing to lose. The Spartans can empty the playbook, take shots, run trick plays, go for fourth down and play like a team that knows everyone expects it to lose by roughly six touchdowns.

And that can be dangerous… for a drive or two.

Then USC remembers that it is USC.

The Trojan horse is already inside the city

Now, I don't know if the Spartans are going to give us a show like we saw in Nolan's The Odyssey, but there is a Trojan horse in the Coliseum. Their team bus has arrived in LA, and their Odysseus — new defensive coordinator Bojay Filimoeatu — has a scheme designed to get Ethan Powell some sacks and hits on Jayden Maiava. They might have a chance in this game.

The Spartans may sneak a horse through the gates. They may even get a couple of Greeks out of it. But eventually, USC is going to look inside the horse, realize what's happening, and set the whole thing on fire. And instead of sacking the City of Angels, the Spartans will probably be sailing home bruised and battered from the Laestrygonians that USC calls its offensive and defensive lines. (You know, the big soldier guys who were seven feet tall in the movie.)

That's the realistic version of this story. Because the problem isn't that San José State can't play football. It's that USC can play really, really good football.

USC has too many ways to beat you

The biggest issue for San José State is that there isn't one matchup it needs to solve.

There are about six.

Starting with Maiava.

The USC quarterback enters 2026 with experience, athleticism and an offense designed by Lincoln Riley. He doesn't need to throw for 400 yards for USC to win this game. He just needs to consistently make the right decisions and allow the talent around him to take over.

And there is plenty of talent around him.

USC returns its entire starting offensive line — or in other words, the Laestrygonians.

College football has become a sport where rosters can look completely different from one season to the next. Having five offensive linemen who have already played together gives USC an advantage that San José State is going to have a difficult time matching.

If USC can run the football efficiently early, the entire game changes. The Trojans can keep the Spartans' defense on the field. They can use play-action. They can attack vertically. They can force San José State's safeties to make difficult decisions. And eventually, those decisions turn into big plays.

That's the nightmare scenario for the Spartans.

San José State's defense has to be nearly perfect

This is where the numbers get ugly.

San José State allowed 32.5 points per game last season. USC scored 35.8 points per game.

That doesn't mean USC is automatically scoring 36 on Saturday. Statistics don't work that cleanly. But it does tell us where the matchup is leaning.

San José State cannot afford to give USC short fields, busted coverages or missed tackles, and it definitely cannot afford turnovers.

The Spartans need to make USC drive the length of the field over and over again. If USC has to execute 10- or 12-play drives, San José State has a chance to force mistakes.

If USC starts getting 40-yard plays?

Pack the bags. The Odyssey is over.

And then there's the depth problem

This is probably the biggest difference between these two teams.

San José State might be able to match USC's intensity. It might even be able to match it for a quarter.

What it cannot match is USC's depth.

This is where Power Four football becomes incredibly cruel. A Mountain West team can have 22 legitimate starters, while USC can have 50 guys who were highly recruited, heavily developed or brought in through the transfer portal.

That matters when the game gets into the third quarter.

The Spartans' starting defensive line might play incredibly well for 30 minutes. Until the legs get tired, the second-string running back comes in, USC's offensive line keeps pushing, and Maiava keeps making throws.

And suddenly the 10-7 game becomes 24-7.

That's the moment I expect Saturday to turn.

The Spartan path to an upset is tiny

Could San José State win?

Technically, yes. College football has produced crazier things.

But there is a massive difference between possible and probable.

For the Spartans to actually pull this off, they would need almost everything to go right. Win the turnover battle. Hit explosive plays. Convert third downs. Avoid penalties. Get an almost mistake-free game from Weaver. Create pressure without constantly blitzing. And watch USC struggle in the red zone.

That's a lot to ask from a team that went 3-9 last season.

The more realistic scenario is much simpler. San José State comes out energized. USC looks a little rusty. The Spartans put together a couple of impressive drives. For a brief moment, everyone starts thinking about the possibility of the upset.

Then the talent gap becomes impossible to ignore. USC starts winning at the line of scrimmage. Maiava settles into the game. The Trojans' receivers begin finding space. The Spartans' defense gets tired.

And the game slowly becomes what everyone expected it to be.

The Elevation Change prediction

I would love nothing more than to sit here and tell you San José State is about to pull off the Trojan horse of the year.

It would be a heck of a story. Spartans march into Los Angeles. Storm Troy. Send the Trojans home crying.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure Homer would believe that one either.

I expect the Spartans to look competitive early. I wouldn't be shocked if they lead after their first possession, or if they're within one score at the beginning of the second quarter.

But eventually, USC's talent, depth and offensive firepower should take over.

The Spartans aren't going to sack the City of Angels. They're going to sail home.

USC 45, San José State 13.

And maybe that's okay.

Because if San José State can walk out of the Coliseum having made USC uncomfortable for a half, created a few explosive plays and shown some signs that last year's 3-9 record isn't the beginning of a downward spiral, then the Spartans can still take something home with them.

Just probably not Helen of Troy.