The West is back: 18 games that will tell us something in Week 1

Week 0 was supposed to be the appetizer.

Instead, the Western Group of Six managed to serve us a little bit of everything: North Dakota State announced itself to the FBS with a 33–7 demolition, Hawai‘i blew a fourth-quarter lead, UNLV discovered that offensive lines are apparently useful, and San Jose State spent a half getting obliterated by USC before remembering it was allowed to play offense.

So, naturally, we're drawing conclusions.

Week 1 is where things get serious. The new-look Pac-12 gets thrown directly into the fire, the Mountain West gets its first full Saturday of the season, and a bunch of Western teams get opportunities to either make a statement or confirm exactly what we were afraid of.

Here are the 18 games we're watching — ordered by how much the opponent and the circumstances actually matter.

1. Boise State at No. 2 Oregon

Line: Oregon −24.5 · O/U 51.5 · Win prob. Oregon 94% / Boise State 6%

This is the game.

Boise State isn't walking into Autzen Stadium because somebody needed an extra body on Oregon's schedule. The Broncos are one of the best teams in the Western Group of Six, and if they have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations, this is the kind of game they eventually have to win. The problem is that they're playing No. 2 Oregon, in Eugene, where the Ducks have approximately 900,000 people screaming at you while wearing neon. Boise State is good. Oregon is very, very good. Those are not mutually exclusive statements.

But here's why we're actually interested: Boise doesn't need this to be a respectable loss. The Broncos need to look like they belong. If they can control the line of scrimmage, avoid giving Oregon short fields and still be within one possession late, suddenly the Broncos aren't just the favorite in the new Pac-12 — they're a legitimate national story. If Boise wins, we're probably going to spend the next four months explaining to people that yes, the Broncos really are this good.

And honestly? That's exactly why you play the game. Boise State has spent decades being the Western team that ruins somebody else's national narrative. Now it gets a chance to ruin Oregon's.

2. Texas State at No. 5 Texas

Line: Texas −29.5 · O/U 59.5 · Win prob. Texas 97% / Texas State 3%

Texas State gets to begin its new Pac-12 life by traveling to Austin and playing the No. 5 team in America.

Because apparently the conference office believes in baptism by fire.

The Bobcats have legitimate ambitions in the new Pac-12 and enough offensive talent to make this more interesting than the typical Power Four-versus-G6 mismatch. But let's be honest: Texas is ranked fifth nationally, has an enormous roster, and gets to play this one at home. Texas State's margin for error is approximately the width of a tortilla chip.

Still, this is the sort of game that can tell us whether Texas State is actually ready to be one of the Pac-12's better teams. They don't necessarily have to win. They need to make Texas uncomfortable, stay physically competitive and show that the Bobcats aren't simply here to collect conference checks. And if they somehow walk out of Austin with a win, we're changing the website's name to Elevation Change: Texas State Has Gone Completely Insane.

3. Fresno State at No. 14 USC

Line: USC −22.5 · Win prob. USC 93% / Fresno State 7%

Fresno State's first game as a member of the new Pac-12 is at the Coliseum against a ranked USC team.

Subtle.

The Bulldogs have legitimate expectations in the new conference, and this is probably the most important thing to remember when watching this game: Fresno isn't supposed to be happy about being here. The Bulldogs should believe they can win this game. USC is ranked No. 14, but Fresno has enough defensive talent and enough experience to make this a real test for the Trojans. The Bulldogs also know exactly what happened when San Jose State played USC last week: the Spartans were down big early before making the final score look much friendlier.

Fresno can't afford that kind of start.

If the Bulldogs can make USC play left-handed — force long drives, limit explosive plays and keep the game physical — then suddenly the upset becomes very real. If USC starts running around Fresno's defense and turning this into a track meet, well, at least Los Angeles has nice weather.

But this is a massive opportunity for the new Pac-12. Fresno State has a chance to walk into the Coliseum and announce that the West didn't spend the offseason rearranging conference logos just to become nationally irrelevant.

4. UTEP at No. 10 Oklahoma

Line: Oklahoma −41.5 · O/U 51.5 · Win prob. Oklahoma 99% / UTEP 1%

There is a very simple question here:

How long can UTEP keep this from becoming a hostage situation?

The Miners are traveling to Norman to play the No. 10 team in the country. This is not a game where we're going to sit here and pretend UTEP is secretly one fourth-quarter drive away from a historic upset. Oklahoma is better. Oklahoma is deeper. Oklahoma has approximately seventeen players who were five-star recruits in another life.

But UTEP can still get something from this.

Play clean. Run the football. Don't turn it over. Make Oklahoma earn its points. If the Miners can get to halftime without the game being over, congratulations — we're already calling that a productive Friday night.

And if UTEP somehow has the ball with a chance to win in the fourth quarter, everyone reading this should immediately stop whatever they're doing and turn on the television.

5. Washington State at No. 17 Washington

Line: Washington −23.5 · Win prob. Washington 94% / Washington State 6%

The Apple Cup survived conference realignment.

College football tried to kill it. Washington State and Washington apparently declined the invitation.

This is the first truly enormous opportunity for Washington State to prove that it belongs in the conversation as one of the new Pac-12's elite programs. The Cougars have the talent to compete for the conference, and unlike some of the other Western teams playing ranked Power Four opponents this weekend, Washington State has a very legitimate reason to believe it can win this game. Washington is ranked No. 17 and has the home-field advantage, but this isn't Boise State walking into Autzen against No. 2. This is a rivalry game between two teams that know each other extremely well.

Which means logic is now mostly irrelevant.

Washington State needs to play like the team that expects to win the Pac-12. If it does, the Cougars can walk out of Seattle with one of the biggest wins of the weekend and immediately establish themselves as a serious threat to Boise State's conference supremacy.

Also, if Washington State wins, somebody in the Big Ten is going to have to explain why they thought taking Washington was worth all that trouble.

6. Northern Illinois at No. 22 Iowa

Line: Iowa −31.5 · Win prob. Iowa 97% / Northern Illinois 3%

Northern Illinois has been welcomed to the Mountain West with a lovely little trip to Iowa.

Nothing says “new conference member” quite like traveling to Iowa City to play a ranked team and probably spending three hours watching punts.

The Huskies are one of the more interesting additions to the Mountain West, and this is a good early test because Iowa isn't going to beat itself. Northern Illinois needs to be disciplined, physical and willing to win an ugly game. The Hawkeyes are ranked No. 22, but this isn't some impossible assignment. If NIU can stay out of obvious passing situations and keep Iowa from controlling the game on the ground, this could become interesting late.

Of course, there's also a possibility that this game ends 16–10 with 47 punts and everyone involved develops lower-back pain.

That's Iowa football, baby.

7. Oregon State at No. 23 Houston

Line: Houston −20.5 · Win prob. Houston 92% / Oregon State 8%

Oregon State gets a ranked Big 12 opponent on the road, which is a pretty good way to find out what kind of team you've built.

The Beavers aren't expected to dominate the new Pac-12 immediately, but they should be competitive. Houston is ranked No. 23, gets the home crowd and has the kind of physicality that can make a road game miserable. Oregon State's job is to keep the game from getting away early and force Houston to play four quarters.

This is also one of those games where the result matters more than the final margin. A close loss to a ranked Big 12 team tells us something. Getting blown out tells us something too. And, obviously, winning would be extremely funny for everyone in the Pac-12 who would immediately begin tweeting about conference strength.

We support that.

8. Wyoming at Colorado State

Line: Colorado State −3 · Win prob. Colorado State 59% / Wyoming 41%

This is where the Western football experience gets much more personal.

Colorado State and Wyoming don't need national rankings to make this interesting. They need about three minutes and somebody to mention the other school's existence.

Colorado State enters the game as a new member of the Pac-12, while Wyoming stayed behind in the Mountain West. That conference split makes the rivalry even more interesting because this game is now a little bit of a referendum on the two programs' decisions. Colorado State wants to prove that the move was worth it. Wyoming would love nothing more than to remind everyone that conference membership doesn't determine who owns the rivalry.

For the Rams, this is a chance to start the Pac-12 era with a rivalry win and some momentum. For Wyoming, it's an opportunity to walk into Fort Collins and make the new Pac-12 member question its life choices.

This is exactly the kind of game where the final score might be less important than who gets to talk trash for the next 365 days.

9. UNLV at Hawai‘i

Line: UNLV −2.5 · O/U 58 · Win prob. UNLV 57% / Hawai‘i 43%

If Week 0 taught us anything, it's that both of these teams are capable of being really good and really frustrating within the same 60 minutes.

UNLV came into the season with serious expectations, then lost to Memphis 27–21 despite Jackson Arnold throwing for 291 yards and accounting for three touchdowns. The bigger concern was the offensive line, which struggled badly and allowed six sacks. Hawai‘i, meanwhile, rallied from a huge deficit against Stanford and actually took a late lead before turnovers helped hand the game back to the Cardinal.

So now they play each other.

For Hawai‘i, home-field advantage is a real weapon, and the Warriors need to show that the Stanford collapse was a bad afternoon rather than a sign of deeper problems. For UNLV, this is the opportunity to prove that the preseason hype wasn't completely ridiculous. Lose this one and you're 0–2. Win it, and the Memphis loss becomes a bump rather than a crisis.

This might be the most important game in the Mountain West this weekend.

It also starts at the completely reasonable time of 10 p.m. Eastern.

You're welcome, America.

10. Western Kentucky at Nevada

Line: Western Kentucky −2.5 · O/U 52.5 · Win prob. WKU 57% / Nevada 43%

Nevada gets one of those games that doesn't look enormous nationally but could matter quite a bit by November.

Western Kentucky is a legitimate opponent, and the Wolf Pack need to start proving that they're more than a team capable of occasionally making Mountain West games weird. This is a home game, it's winnable, and Nevada needs it.

For Jeff Choate and the Wolf Pack, the goal should be pretty straightforward: establish the run, protect the football and make Western Kentucky play a full 60 minutes.

If Nevada wins, nobody outside Reno is going to care much.

That's fine.

Mountain West football is built on the idea that you can quietly win six or seven games and then suddenly discover you're playing for something important in November. Nevada doesn't need national attention in September. It needs wins.

11. Central Michigan at New Mexico

Line: New Mexico −10.5 · O/U 46.5 · Win prob. New Mexico 79% / Central Michigan 21%

New Mexico is one of the Mountain West teams we're watching closely this season, and this game is a chance to see whether the Lobos can keep those expectations intact.

The biggest question is obviously quarterback. Jack Layne, who helped lead New Mexico to a 9–4 season and a share of the Mountain West title last year, is out after elbow surgery. Oregon transfer Luke Moga gives the Lobos a talented option, while the rest of the quarterback room provides some experience and flexibility.

The good news for New Mexico is that the rest of the roster isn't suddenly disappearing. Jason Eck's program has built legitimate continuity, and the Lobos have the kind of rushing attack and defense that can take some pressure off a new quarterback.

So, no pressure, Luke.

Just keep the offense moving and nobody gets nervous.

12. San Jose State at Eastern Michigan

Line: Eastern Michigan −4.5 · Win prob. EMU 63% / San Jose State 37%

San Jose State does not need another moral victory.

The Spartans got one last week against USC. They showed enough offensively to make the final score respectable, but they also spent the first half getting buried. USC led 35–3 before San Jose State finally found some rhythm, eventually losing 42–26.

Now the Spartans get Eastern Michigan.

And this is where we find out whether SJSU is actually a good football team or just a team that can score touchdowns when the other team has already started thinking about next week.

Luke Weaver showed enough against USC to give San Jose State fans reason for optimism. The defense, however, has to be much better. The Spartans don't need to beat Eastern Michigan because they're trying to prove something to the MAC. They need to beat Eastern Michigan because they need to bounce back.

Lose this one, and the USC game starts looking less like a promising performance and more like the first chapter of a long season.

13. Duquesne at Air Force

No line posted · FCS opponent

Air Force gets to start its season with a game that should, in theory, be considerably less stressful than the assignments we've discussed above.

Duquesne is coming to Colorado Springs. The Falcons have the option offense. They have home field. They have no excuse for making this unnecessarily dramatic.

Air Force is one of those teams that can become extremely annoying for opponents when everything is clicking. The option slows games down, creates possession problems and forces defenses to prepare for something they don't see every Saturday.

The biggest thing we're watching is whether Air Force looks like a legitimate contender in the new Mountain West. If the Falcons handle Duquesne comfortably, great. If we're still wondering who's going to win with five minutes left, we have questions.

14. North Dakota State vs. Fordham

No line posted · FCS opponent

North Dakota State already made the statement.

Now it needs to avoid making the classic mistake of following up an enormous performance with a game it decides is beneath it.

The Bison absolutely demolished Jacksonville State 33–7 in their FBS debut, holding the Gamecocks to 170 total yards while running for 209 themselves and controlling the ball for more than 36 minutes. Quarterback Nathan Hayes threw two touchdowns, and the defense looked like it had been playing FBS football for years.

Fordham is an FCS team coming off a loss to Colgate, and North Dakota State is at home.

So yes, we're expecting the Bison to win.

But this game matters because NDSU has suddenly become one of the most interesting teams in the entire Mountain West. The Bison aren't just trying to survive their FBS transition. They might actually be trying to win the conference.

And if they win this one by 30 again, somebody needs to check whether the Mountain West accidentally invited the wrong team.

15. Idaho State at Utah State

Line: Utah State −12.5 · Win prob. Utah State 83% / Idaho State 17%

Utah State's first game as a member of the new Pac-12 is, thankfully, a little less terrifying.

The Aggies get Idaho State at home, giving them a chance to begin the season without immediately being asked to explain themselves on national television against a top-10 opponent.

That matters for Utah State because this is a program entering a conference with some serious expectations around its upper tier. Boise State, Washington State and Fresno State are going to get much of the attention, but Utah State has an opportunity to establish itself as the team that makes everybody's life miserable.

Step one: beat Idaho State.

Step two: stop letting people talk about Idaho State.

Step three: figure out what the heck the new Pac-12 is going to look like.

16. San Diego State vs. Portland State

Line: San Diego State −40.5 · Win prob. San Diego State 99% / Portland State 1%

San Diego State gets a home opener against Portland State, which means the primary objective is simple:

Don't make this weird.

The Aztecs are entering the new Pac-12 with a chance to establish themselves as one of the conference's better programs, but nobody needs to see a fourth-quarter thriller against an FCS opponent in Week 1. This is about getting comfortable, establishing the identity of the team and getting some younger players meaningful snaps.

San Diego State has bigger games coming. This one is about doing what good teams do: take care of business and move on.

If the Aztecs win by 35, nobody will learn much.

If they don't, we'll learn considerably more than we wanted to.

17. Mercyhurst at New Mexico State

No line posted · FCS opponent

New Mexico State already got its “welcome to the season” experience.

It came in Tallahassee.

The Aggies traveled to Florida State in Week 0 and lost 34–17, which is not exactly the worst possible outcome when your season opener is against a Power Four program. Now they get to return home and play Mercyhurst.

This is the reset game.

NMSU needs to take whatever positives came out of Florida State, throw away the mistakes and start building some momentum. There's no reason to spend the entire season judging the Aggies based on a game against Florida State. The real question is whether New Mexico State can turn itself into a competitive team over the next two months.

Mercyhurst is the first opportunity to show it.

Also, going from Florida State to Mercyhurst is about as extreme a scheduling whiplash as you can get.

18. Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State

No line posted · FCS opponent

Sacramento State's first FBS game did not go according to plan.

The Hornets traveled to Eastern Michigan and lost 28–17, officially beginning their first season in the FBS with an 0–1 record. Now they return home to face Mississippi Valley State.

This is not about proving anything nationally. This is about settling down.

Sac State has Fresno State and North Dakota State coming up later this month. That's a pretty brutal introduction to FBS football. The Hornets don't have time to feel sorry for themselves, but they also don't need to panic after one road loss.

Beat Mississippi Valley State. Get the offense moving. Get some confidence back.

Because if Sacramento State loses this one, we're going to have to start asking some extremely uncomfortable questions about that FBS transition.

And nobody wants that conversation in Week 1.