Week 1 gave us pretty much everything we could have asked for from the Western Group of Six. We got a near-upset of Oregon, a few impressive wins, several brutal losses, and at least one team already making its fanbase question every life decision that led them to Saturday afternoon.
Now comes Week 2.
This is where teams have to prove that Week 1 was actually meaningful. Boise State gets another major test. The Pac-12 gets another chance to recover from a rough opening weekend. Colorado State gets to see if it is actually good. Nevada gets a serious FCS challenge. And several teams are already desperately trying to avoid the dreaded “well, there's always next year” conversation in September.
Let's get into it.
1. Memphis at Boise State
Can Boise State turn a great loss into a great season?
Line: Boise State −7.5 · O/U 55.5 · Win prob. Boise State 72% / Memphis 28%
This is the biggest Western Group of Six game of the week, and honestly, it might be one of the biggest Group of Six games of the entire season.
Boise State nearly knocked off No. 2 Oregon last week, falling 34–27 after spending most of the game looking like it belonged on the same field as one of the best teams in the country. Maddux Madsen looked much more comfortable, the Broncos moved the ball, and for the first time in a while, Boise State looked like Boise State again.
Then Memphis showed up.
The Tigers are 2–0 and have looked impressive to start the season. Their defensive line has been one of their biggest strengths, which makes this a particularly interesting matchup against Boise State's offensive line. If Boise can keep Madsen upright and avoid letting Memphis control the line of scrimmage, the Broncos have a very real chance to win this game.
Memphis also comes into this game with a rather unusual philosophy. Their coach has talked about winning by basically making sure his team isn't having fun in practice. Which is a great strategy if your goal is to produce a football team that has absolutely no idea what the word “fun” means.
Memphis doesn't want to have fun.
Boise State, meanwhile, just spent four quarters punching Oregon in the mouth and apparently decided that wasn't enough.
This should be a really good one.
2. No. 13 Texas Tech at Oregon State
The Beavers have a chance to save the Pac-12's reputation
Line: Texas Tech −26.5 · Win prob. Texas Tech 95% / Oregon State 5%
The Pac-12 went 2–6 in Week 1, which is not exactly the conference's preferred method of introducing itself to the country.
Oregon State gets the next opportunity to change that.
The Beavers lost 33–20 to Houston last week, but Texas Tech presents an entirely different challenge. The Red Raiders are ranked No. 13, and Oregon State will need to find a way to slow down an offense that is going to put serious pressure on the Beavers' defense.
A win here would immediately change the conversation around Oregon State and give the Pac-12 one of its biggest wins of the season. A loss would leave the conference looking for another opportunity to prove it belongs in the national conversation.
The Beavers have the stage. Now they need to use it.
3. San Diego State at UCLA
The Aztecs are ready to make some noise
Line: UCLA −11.5 · Win prob. UCLA 81% / San Diego State 19%
San Diego State dropped 53 points on Portland State last week and looked like a team that came into the season with something to prove.
Now they get UCLA at the Rose Bowl.
UCLA opened the season with a 45–24 win over Cal, and historically this matchup has been heavily tilted toward the Bruins. UCLA leads the all-time series 22–1–1, which is the kind of statistic that San Diego State probably would have preferred not to see before getting on the plane.
But this is not the San Diego State teams of the past.
Jayden Denegal and Jaylon Hawkins give the Aztecs legitimate weapons, and SDSU's defense looked strong in Week 1. If they can keep UCLA from getting comfortable early, this could become a very interesting game.
The Aztecs aren't going to Los Angeles to admire the scenery.
4. Washington State at Kansas State
Wazzu gets another chance to prove Week 1 wasn't the whole story
Line: Kansas State −17.5 · O/U 50.5 · Win prob. Kansas State 88% / Washington State 12%
Washington State's 24–10 loss to Washington was certainly not the start the Cougars wanted.
Now they get Kansas State.
That is not exactly a gentle rebound game.
Washington State will need to play much better offensively, especially after Tony Freeman suffered a knee injury that could keep him out. The Cougars cannot afford another slow offensive performance against a Kansas State team that will be happy to make them pay for mistakes.
Still, Washington State has an opportunity here. A competitive performance would go a long way toward reminding everyone that the Apple Cup wasn't necessarily a preview of the entire season.
5. Utah State at No. 19 Washington
The Aggies can't wait to see the “OH NO, WE SUCK AGAIN” gifs
Line: Washington −26.5 · Win prob. Washington 95% / Utah State 5%
Utah State lost to Idaho State last week.
Then somebody looked at the schedule and said, “You know what would make this better? Let's go play No. 19 Washington.”
This is where the internet becomes very important.
USU Barstool's Instagram was already full of “OH NO, WE SUCK AGAIN” gifs after the Idaho State loss, and if Utah State comes out of Seattle with another ugly loss, those gifs are probably going to have to become a permanent part of the account's branding.
Washington is coming off a win over Washington State and now gets to welcome the Aggies into Seattle. Utah State needs a massive turnaround from Week 1 if it wants this game to be competitive.
The good news is that football gives you an opportunity to erase a bad week.
The bad news is that opportunity happens to be against No. 19 Washington.
6. UTSA at Texas State
A Western Group of Six matchup that actually matters
Line: Texas State −1.5 · Win prob. Texas State 54% / UTSA 46%
This is one of those games that might not get much national attention, but it could be extremely important by the end of the season.
Texas State got absolutely destroyed by Texas in Week 1, losing 59–7. UTSA enters this game with a chance to take advantage of a Texas State team that is going to be desperate to prove it is better than its Week 1 performance.
For Texas State, this is a reset.
For UTSA, this is a chance to make a statement.
This is exactly the kind of Western Group of Six matchup that could have conference-title implications later in the year.
7. North Dakota State at Air Force
Can the Bison stop the triple option?
Line: North Dakota State −3 · Win prob. NDSU 59% / Air Force 41%
Welcome to the Mountain West, North Dakota State.
The Bison are one of the most successful programs in FCS history, and they have already shown that they can handle the jump to the FBS level. Now they get one of the most unique teams in college football.
Air Force.
The Falcons destroyed Duquesne 34–0 last week and ran for 431 yards. That means NDSU isn't just preparing for a good football team. It is preparing for an offense that basically decided the forward pass was optional.
The biggest question might be simple: Can North Dakota State stop the triple option?
If the Bison can't, Air Force could control this game from start to finish. If NDSU can consistently force third-and-long and get the Falcons out of their comfort zone, suddenly this becomes a very interesting test of whether the Bison are ready to be a legitimate Mountain West team.
8. UNLV at North Texas
The Rebels need to remind everyone who they were supposed to be
Line: UNLV −3.5 · O/U 57 · Win prob. UNLV 61% / North Texas 39%
UNLV's defense looked pretty good in Week 1.
The offense, however, still has some questions to answer.
The Rebels now travel to North Texas looking for a more complete performance. UNLV has spent the last few seasons building a reputation as one of the more dangerous teams in the Mountain West, and this is the kind of game where they need to start looking like it again.
North Texas will not simply roll over, but UNLV should have the talent to win this game if the offense can find some consistency.
9. Southern Utah at Colorado State
Are the Rams actually good?
Line: Colorado State −20.5 · Win prob. Colorado State 92% / Southern Utah 8%
Colorado State absolutely destroyed Wyoming 35–13 last week and took home the Bronze Boot.
Hauss Hejny threw five touchdowns.
That is a pretty good way to introduce yourself to the season.
Now comes Southern Utah, and this is where we find out whether Colorado State is actually good or whether Wyoming simply had a really bad Saturday.
The Rams should win this game. More importantly, they should look like a team that belongs in the upper half of the Mountain West. If Colorado State can dominate another opponent, suddenly that win over Wyoming starts looking like something much more significant.
10. Sacramento State at Fresno State
Fresno State desperately needs a palate cleanser
Line pending at publication
Fresno State's Week 1 was ugly.
The Bulldogs were shut out by USC, and now they get a chance to take out their frustrations on Sacramento State.
Sac State is not technically a Mountain West or Pac-12 team, but they are exactly the kind of Western program Elevation Change is interested in. The Hornets represent another western team that can make things uncomfortable for an FBS opponent.
Fresno State should win this game.
But if Sacramento State hangs around, suddenly the pressure gets very real. Fresno desperately needs a clean performance after getting shut out, and another ugly game would raise some serious questions about where this team is headed.
11. Montana State at Nevada
Can the Wolf Pack keep the magic going?
Line pending at publication
Nevada might have been the most surprising team in the Western Group of Six last week.
The Wolf Pack demolished Western Kentucky 49–14, piled up 486 total yards, and ran for 323 yards.
Now comes Montana State.
The Bobcats are one of the better FCS programs in the country, which makes this a much more interesting test for Nevada than the score might suggest. If Nevada wins, the Wolf Pack suddenly start looking like one of the biggest surprises in the conference.
But on the other hand, if Nevada loses, we might start campaigning for Montana State to come up and play with the big boys in the FBS.
At some point, you have to wonder if the FCS is getting a little too small for the Bobcats.
12. Illinois State at Northern Illinois
Please, Huskies, don't make this worse
Line pending at publication
Northern Illinois lost 40–0 to Iowa last week.
The Huskies managed just 120 yards of offense.
Now they get Illinois State, which is ranked No. 4 in the FCS and entered the season with a 117–10 scoring differential through its first two games.
So, uh…
Good luck?
Northern Illinois needs to show something. Anything. A touchdown would probably be a nice place to start.
An FCS loss after getting shut out by Iowa would turn a bad start into an absolute disaster.
13. Cal Poly at San Jose State
From the Coliseum to Cal Poly
No line posted · FCS opponent
San Jose State opened the season by beating Eastern Michigan 27–21.
Luke Weaver threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns, giving the Spartans plenty to feel good about. The problem was that SJSU also made things much harder than they needed to be with penalties and turnovers.
Now the Spartans return home to face Cal Poly.
And yes, San Jose State is in the Mountain West, not the Pac-12.
After going from playing USC in the Coliseum to playing Cal Poly, the Spartans have a much more manageable assignment. The goal here should be simple: win, look cleaner than last week, and start stacking victories.
Last week was USC.
This week is Cal Poly.
That's called a schedule change.
14. Texas Southern at UTEP
The Miners need something good to happen
No line posted · FCS opponent
UTEP got absolutely demolished by Oklahoma 51–0.
There isn't really a creative way to describe that.
The Miners now get Texas Southern and desperately need to look like an FBS football team again.
This should be an opportunity for UTEP to get its offense moving, build some confidence, and hopefully give its fans something to celebrate.
After being shut out by Oklahoma, even a boring win probably sounds pretty good right now.
15. Mercyhurst at New Mexico
New Mexico is suddenly one of the teams nobody wants to play
No line posted · FCS opponent
New Mexico was one of the biggest surprises of Week 1.
The Lobos crushed Central Michigan 38–7 and looked like a completely different team from the one many people expected coming into the season.
Now they get Mercyhurst.
The Lakers are 0–2, while New Mexico has already picked up one of the better wins in the Western Group of Six. The Lobos should be heavily favored here, and this is another chance to prove that Week 1 was not a fluke.
16. Northern Colorado at Wyoming
Please don't make this weird
No line posted · FCS opponent
Wyoming beat Colorado State 35–13.
Wait.
Sorry.
Colorado State beat Wyoming 35–13.
This is what happens when the Bronze Boot gets involved.
The Cowboys now get Northern Colorado, and there is no reason this should be complicated. Wyoming needs to put last week's loss behind it and take care of business.
After all, losing to Colorado State is one thing.
Losing to Northern Colorado immediately afterward would create an entirely different level of problem.
17. New Mexico State at Hawai‘i
Midnight in paradise, and potentially a very long night for Hawai‘i
Line: Hawai‘i −9.5 · Win prob. Hawai‘i 77% / New Mexico State 23%
New Mexico State has already shown that it is capable of competing with FBS opponents.
The Aggies gave Florida State a real fight in Week 0 and then bounced back to beat Mercyhurst. They are not coming to Hawai‘i simply to enjoy the beach.
Hawai‘i, meanwhile, is starting to have some serious problems.
The Rainbow Warriors have struggled to start the season, including a 21–6 loss to UNLV, and now they have to deal with a New Mexico State team that has already shown it can make games uncomfortable.
This is where things could become concerning for Hawai‘i.
The Rainbow Warriors cannot afford to keep losing games against teams they expect to compete with. At some point, close losses and bad offensive performances stop being early-season struggles and start becoming a pattern.
Hawai‘i needs to find something offensively, and it needs to find it quickly.
The good news is that they are playing at home.
The bad news is that the game starts at a time when most of the continental United States will already be asleep.
Which might honestly be the safest place to be if this game goes badly.
Week 2: what we're actually trying to learn
Week 1 gave us plenty of surprises. Week 2 is about figuring out which of those surprises are real.
Is Boise State the best Group of Six team in America?
A win over Memphis would go a long way toward answering that.
Can the Pac-12 recover?
Oregon State, Washington State, Utah State, Fresno State and the rest of the conference have plenty to prove.
Is Colorado State actually good?
The Rams looked great against Wyoming. Now they need to keep doing it.
Was Nevada's 49–14 win a fluke?
Montana State should give us a much better answer.
Which teams are already in trouble?
Utah State, Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Hawai‘i and UTEP all need something good to happen quickly.
Week 1 was about making an impression.
Week 2 is about proving it wasn't an accident.