The Western Group of Six has officially entered the part of the season where the résumé starts mattering.
Two weeks in, the records are beginning to separate, but the Elevation Index is not simply a standings table. A win over a quality opponent matters more than beating somebody by 50. A close loss to an elite team can still tell us something. A loss to a bad team hurts. And losing to an FCS opponent? That is the quickest way to send your ranking into a canyon.
The Index also puts more weight on recent results, meaning what a team did this week matters more than what it did seven days ago.
Every week, we are asking four questions: What happened? Why did it happen? What does it tell us about the team? And what needs to change before next Saturday?
And now, every team gets one more piece: next week.
The live version of the Index — the chart, every team's full game log, and the reason behind every rank — is on the Elevation Index page.
1. North Dakota State 3-0
Previous: #1 · ↔
North Dakota State has done about as much as you could ask from a program playing its first season at the FBS level. The Bison are 3–0, and their latest win came against Air Force in a game that looked like it might turn into a comfortable victory before the Falcons remembered they were allowed to score points. NDSU built a 35–13 lead before Air Force mounted a comeback, eventually winning 38–32.
The Bison did not dominate statistically. Air Force actually finished with 386 total yards to NDSU's 374. What mattered was efficiency in key situations. NDSU converted three of three fourth downs and built a huge early advantage, while Nathan Hayes threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns. Myles Mitchell added two rushing touchdowns. This is not a team relying on one statistical category. NDSU has shown it can control games, survive momentum swings and execute when possessions matter most.
What North Dakota State needs to improve: The fourth quarter against Air Force showed that the Bison cannot become comfortable protecting large leads. Giving up 19 fourth-quarter points after leading by 22 is a warning sign, particularly against better offenses. The defense needs to finish games more consistently, while the offense needs to continue converting third and fourth downs to keep the opponent's offense on the sideline.
Next week: Sacramento State
2. Colorado State 2-0
Previous: #4 · ↑ 2
Colorado State's offense may currently be the most entertaining unit in the Western Group of Six. The Rams blasted Southern Utah 58–24 while producing 678 total yards, including 296 rushing and 382 passing. They averaged 9.8 yards per play and went 8-for-15 on third down. Hauss Hejny threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown, and Mel Brown somehow turned nine carries into 171 yards. That is not a typo.
The defense was considerably less convincing. Southern Utah still produced 442 yards, including 206 on the ground, and ripped off 11 explosive plays. Colorado State did force four turnovers, which helped swing the game, but the Rams cannot expect to give up that many chunk plays against better competition and simply survive through offensive fireworks.
What Colorado State needs to improve: The obvious priority is explosive-play defense. Colorado State's offense is good enough to put pressure on BYU, but giving up 11 explosive plays against Southern Utah is a problem when the opponent is No. 11 BYU, which just beat Arizona 28–17. The Rams need to make BYU earn its yards with long drives instead of allowing chunk gains to flip the field. If Colorado State can reduce the big plays while maintaining anything close to its current offensive efficiency, this suddenly becomes a very interesting game in Fort Collins.
Next week: No. 11 BYU
3. Boise State 1-1
Previous: #5 · ↑ 2
Boise State's ranking is being carried by one of the best résumés in the Western Group of Six despite having a loss. The Broncos followed their seven-point loss to then-No. 2 Oregon with a 38–20 demolition of Memphis. Boise finished with 578 total yards and 357 rushing yards, led by Dylan Riley's 206 rushing yards.
The important part is what happened after Boise fell behind Memphis 17–3. The Broncos did not panic, and their offense eventually took over. That response matters. The Oregon loss already showed Boise can play with an elite opponent, and the Memphis game showed that the Broncos can also handle a team they are expected to beat. Oregon has since fallen to No. 21 after losing to Oklahoma State, which slightly reduces the value of Boise's best result, but it remains a very strong quality loss.
What Boise State needs to improve: The Broncos need to become more consistent early in games. Falling behind 17–3 against Memphis was a reminder that Boise cannot afford slow starts against better competition. The rushing attack is clearly dangerous, but the passing game needs to keep defenses from loading the box. Boise has the talent to control games, but the next step is making that control start in the first quarter instead of after halftime.
Next week: South Dakota
4. New Mexico 2-0
Previous: #3 · ↓ 1
New Mexico has scored 108 points in two games and allowed just 14. After beating Central Michigan 38–7, the Lobos obliterated Mercyhurst 70–7 and scored a school-record 42 points in the second quarter. That is the definition of taking care of business.
The problem for the Elevation Index is not what New Mexico has done. It is who New Mexico has done it against. Central Michigan is a legitimate FBS opponent, but Mercyhurst is not the type of opponent that can fully validate a team averaging 54 points per game. The Lobos have looked dominant, but the Oklahoma game will tell us much more.
What New Mexico needs to improve: There is not much to criticize statistically after allowing only seven points per game, but the Lobos need to prove that their offensive efficiency travels against elite athletes. Oklahoma will force New Mexico to sustain drives rather than feast on short fields and mismatches. The biggest question is whether the Lobos can continue generating explosive plays while protecting the football against a defense that can punish mistakes.
Next week: No. 24 Oklahoma
5. Air Force 1-1
Previous: #6 · ↑ 1
Air Force's 38–32 loss to North Dakota State was disappointing because the Falcons actually moved the ball effectively. Air Force finished with 386 total yards, more than NDSU, and converted six of 14 third downs and both of its fourth-down attempts.
The problem was the enormous hole they created. NDSU jumped ahead 35–13, and Air Force spent the rest of the game trying to erase it. Liam Szarka contributed 88 rushing yards and a touchdown, but the Falcons needed their offense to be more effective before the game became a comeback attempt.
What Air Force needs to improve: The Falcons need to start games with more offensive consistency and prevent opponents from building early leads. Their offense can control the clock and shorten games, but that advantage disappears when they fall three scores behind. The defense also has to create more negative plays early, because playing from behind forces Air Force away from the style that makes it difficult to beat.
Next week: Bye
6. San José State 2-1
Previous: #9 · ↑ 3
San José State has quietly built one of the more interesting résumés in the Western Group of Six. The Spartans lost to USC, then responded with wins over Eastern Michigan and Cal Poly. The Cal Poly game ended 30–20, giving SJSU a second straight win after the USC loss.
The Spartans have shown enough offensive balance to remain dangerous, but the biggest question is consistency. Against USC, SJSU proved it could generate offense against an elite opponent. Against lesser competition, the Spartans have not always looked as overwhelming as their talent would suggest.
What San José State needs to improve: The Spartans need to become more efficient on early downs and avoid putting themselves into obvious passing situations. Fresno State is coming to San José after scoring 49 points against Sacramento State, and the Bulldogs have enough offensive firepower to punish stalled drives. SJSU does not need to score 40, but it probably needs to consistently win the field-position battle and avoid giving Fresno short fields.
Next week: Fresno State
7. Fresno State 1-1
Previous: #15 · ↑ 8
Fresno State's response to the USC loss was exactly what it needed. After being shut out by the Trojans, the Bulldogs exploded for 49 points against Sacramento State, including a 32–0 second quarter. Jayden Mandal completed 23 of 26 passes for 316 yards and two touchdowns, while B.J. Donelson rushed for 102 yards and three touchdowns.
The important part was balance. Fresno did not have to rely entirely on Mandal. The rushing game provided consistent production, and the passing game created explosive opportunities. Sacramento State was clearly overmatched, so this does not erase the USC loss, but it did show that Fresno can dominate when it has the talent advantage.
What Fresno State needs to improve: The Bulldogs need to prove they can carry that offensive efficiency into a competitive game. Against SJSU, the key will be third-down execution and protection. Fresno cannot afford to let San José State dictate the pace with defensive pressure. If Mandal gets time and the rushing attack remains efficient, Fresno has enough offensive balance to win. If the Spartans consistently force third-and-long, this becomes much more difficult.
Next week: at San José State
8. Oregon State 0-2
Previous: #12 · ↑ 4
Oregon State might be the best example of why the Elevation Index cannot simply rank teams by record.
The Beavers are 0–2, but their latest loss came to No. 13 Texas Tech, and Oregon State actually led 24–21 early in the fourth quarter before the Red Raiders pulled away. The Beavers produced 472 total yards, including 417 passing yards. Braden Atkinson threw for 399 yards, while Jesse Legree caught passes for 240 yards.
Texas Tech finished with only 352 total yards. Oregon State lost despite outgaining a ranked opponent by 120 yards. That tells us the Beavers' problem is not a lack of offensive production. It is finishing games and converting possessions into points consistently enough to turn yardage into wins.
What Oregon State needs to improve: The Beavers need to become better in situational football. Going 4-for-15 on third down against Texas Tech is the biggest number that jumps out from an offense that otherwise produced 472 yards. Oregon State is moving the ball, but too many drives are ending without enough points. Against Montana, the Beavers need to turn their yardage advantage into touchdowns and avoid allowing a game against an FCS opponent to become another close fourth-quarter affair.
Next week: Montana
9. UTEP 1-1
Previous: #17 · ↑ 8
UTEP bounced back from its 51–0 loss to Oklahoma by destroying Texas Southern 51–10. The Miners needed exactly that kind of response after getting embarrassed in Norman.
The problem is that the win does not tell us much about UTEP's ceiling. Texas Southern is an FCS opponent, so while a 41-point victory is encouraging, it cannot compensate for the Oklahoma loss or suddenly make UTEP look like a contender.
What UTEP needs to improve: The Miners need to prove that the offense can function against a Power Four defense without completely collapsing. That opportunity comes immediately against Michigan. UTEP cannot replicate its Oklahoma performance and expect to stay competitive. The offense needs to protect the quarterback, create some explosive plays and stay on the field. Even if a win is unlikely, a competitive performance would significantly improve the résumé.
Next week: at No. 19 Michigan
10. San Diego State 1-1
Previous: #7 · ↓ 3
San Diego State's 28–10 loss to UCLA was a strange game because the defense played well for most of it. UCLA was held scoreless for long stretches, and the Bruins led only 7–0 entering the fourth quarter before pulling away.
That makes the loss less concerning than the final score might suggest, but the offense remains the issue. San Diego State struggled to sustain drives and create enough scoring opportunities to take advantage of its defensive performance. After scoring 53 points against Portland State in Week 1, the Aztecs were held to just 10.
What San Diego State needs to improve: The offense has to become more reliable on third down and in the red zone. The defense is good enough to keep San Diego State in games, but the offense cannot disappear for three quarters and expect the defense to hold opponents under a touchdown every week. James Madison provides a useful test because the Aztecs should have opportunities to score, but they need to finish drives rather than settle for field-position victories.
Next week: James Madison
11. Hawai‘i 1-2
Previous: #19 · ↑ 8
Hawai‘i finally got into the win column by beating New Mexico State 29–19. The biggest positive was quarterback Micah Alejado, who completed 33 of 45 passes for 346 yards. Tama Uiliata added 10 receptions for 107 yards.
The problem is that the Rainbow Warriors are still only 1–2 after losses to Stanford and UNLV. The passing production is encouraging, but Hawai‘i needs to become more balanced and consistent if it wants to climb the Index.
What Hawai‘i needs to improve: The biggest priority is defensive consistency. Hawai‘i cannot ask Alejado to throw for nearly 350 yards every week just to win games. The Rainbow Warriors need to improve their ability to get off the field on third down and limit explosive plays. The bye comes at a useful time, and the Arizona State game in October will be a much better test of whether the offense can maintain its production against a more athletic defense.
Next week: Bye
12. Wyoming 1-1
Previous: #18 · ↑ 6
Wyoming followed its 35–13 loss to Colorado State with a 21–13 win over Northern Colorado. It was not spectacular, but it was important.
The Cowboys avoided the mistake of turning one loss into two. They controlled enough of the game to get the win and now have a chance to improve their résumé against Central Michigan.
What Wyoming needs to improve: The offense needs more consistency, particularly after averaging only 13 points against Colorado State and 21 against Northern Colorado. Wyoming cannot rely exclusively on defense and field position. Against Central Michigan, the Cowboys need to improve third-down efficiency and generate more explosive plays while limiting negative plays. A road win would do much more for this résumé than another narrow victory over a lower-level opponent.
Next week: at Central Michigan
13. UNLV 1-2
Previous: #8 · ↓ 5
UNLV's season took another hit with a 44–6 loss to North Texas. After beating Hawai‘i in Week 1, the Rebels have now lost two straight, and the latest loss was not competitive.
The biggest concern is the offense. Scoring six points against North Texas after scoring 21 against Hawai‘i suggests major inconsistency. The defense also struggled to prevent North Texas from controlling the game.
What UNLV needs to improve: Pretty much everything has to become more stable, but the offense is the first priority. UNLV needs to determine what its identity actually is and build around it. The Rebels have a bye this week, which is probably useful because there is no opponent to distract them from fixing the problems. A week off gives the coaching staff time to evaluate the quarterback situation, offensive line and defensive communication before Akron.
Next week: Bye
14. New Mexico State 1-2
Previous: #11 · ↓ 3
New Mexico State beat Mercyhurst 51–14 but then lost 29–19 to Hawai‘i. The Aggies are 1–2, and while the offense has shown enough to be competitive, the defense has not been consistent enough to make this team a serious threat yet.
The Hawai‘i loss was not disastrous, but it reinforced the idea that NMSU is still a team searching for an identity.
What New Mexico State needs to improve: The Aggies need to get more consistent stops and avoid letting opponents control the game through the passing attack. The offense has demonstrated that it can score, but giving opposing quarterbacks too many comfortable throws puts too much pressure on the offense to respond every possession. The bye week should give NMSU time to reset before the rivalry game with New Mexico.
Next week: Bye
15. Utah State 0-2
Previous: #20 · ↑ 5
This is where the Elevation Index gets intentionally harsh.
Utah State nearly knocked off a ranked Washington team, losing 16–14 on a Hail Mary after holding the Huskies to a manageable offensive output. The Aggies got 196 passing yards and 81 rushing yards from Grady Brosterhous, while Javon Robinson topped 100 receiving yards and caught a 78-yard touchdown.
That is a very good performance against a ranked opponent. Unfortunately, Utah State also lost to FCS Idaho State. The Elevation Index treats an FCS loss as the single biggest negative result a team can have, regardless of how good the FCS opponent is. Washington subsequently dropped out of the AP Top 25, making the quality of this loss slightly less valuable than it appeared Saturday morning.
What Utah State needs to improve: The Aggies need to make their offense more consistently productive. The defense is good enough to keep Utah State competitive, but scoring only 14 points against Washington means the margin for error is tiny. Against Utah, Utah State needs to protect the football, convert more third downs and find a way to finish drives. If the Aggies can turn long possessions into touchdowns instead of field goals or punts, they have a chance to make this another uncomfortable game for a ranked opponent.
Next week: at No. 17 Utah
16. Texas State 0-2
Previous: #14 · ↓ 2
Texas State is another team whose record does not fully describe what happened Saturday. The Bobcats lost 30–26 to UTSA despite outgaining the Roadrunners 481–398 and rushing for 289 yards.
That sounds encouraging until you look at the turnovers. Texas State committed three fumbles, lost one, threw two interceptions and finished with a turnover margin that essentially handed UTSA extra opportunities. The Bobcats also went 0-for-1 on fourth down while UTSA converted five of six.
What Texas State needs to improve: Ball security and situational execution have to be the entire focus. Texas State's rushing attack is good enough to control games, but those yards mean very little if the offense gives away possessions. Against North Texas, the Bobcats need to turn their 289-yard rushing potential into points and avoid the kind of turnover mistakes that turned the UTSA game into a loss. If the Bobcats protect the football, this is a very winnable game.
Next week: North Texas
17. Washington State 0-2
Previous: #13 · ↓ 4
Washington State has had a brutal opening schedule, losing the Apple Cup to Washington before falling at Kansas State. The Cougars now return home looking for their first win.
The offense has shown flashes, but the bigger problem is that Washington State has not consistently generated enough production against quality defenses. At 0–2, the résumé needs help quickly.
What Washington State needs to improve: The Cougars need to establish offensive consistency from the opening drive. They cannot spend three quarters trying to figure out what works and expect to recover. Duquesne is the type of opponent against which Washington State should be able to control the game, so the offense needs to create an early lead and the defense needs to force turnovers. Anything less will keep questions surrounding this team alive.
Next week: Duquesne
18. Nevada 1-1
Previous: #2 · ↓ 16
Nevada's ranking is complicated. The Wolf Pack opened the year by destroying Western Kentucky 49–14, then lost 20–7 to Montana State. The second result is especially important because Montana State is an excellent FCS program, but the Elevation Index does not give a pass for losing to an FCS team simply because that FCS team is good.
That is a major résumé penalty. Nevada has a strong opening win, but losing to an FCS opponent keeps the Wolf Pack from climbing higher.
What Nevada needs to improve: The offense has to become more reliable against physical defenses. Scoring only seven points against Montana State after scoring 49 the previous week suggests Nevada's offense can be heavily dependent on matchup and rhythm. Against Middle Tennessee, the Wolf Pack need to establish the run, protect the quarterback and avoid turnovers. A bounce-back win would help stabilize a résumé that currently has one impressive win and one ugly loss.
Next week: at Middle Tennessee
19. Sacramento State 1-2
Previous: #10 · ↓ 9
Sacramento State's 49–3 loss to Fresno State was the reality check of the week. After beating Mississippi Valley State in Week 1, the Hornets ran into a Fresno team that was simply operating at a different level.
The Hornets were shut out 32–0 in the second quarter alone. Whatever offensive success Sacramento State had in Week 1 disappeared against Fresno's speed and depth.
What Sacramento State needs to improve: The Hornets need to find ways to stay ahead of the chains offensively and avoid allowing early defensive breakdowns. Against North Dakota State, the challenge becomes significantly greater. NDSU has already shown it can physically control an FBS opponent and has the kind of rushing attack that can make a team defend every blade of grass. Sacramento State needs to force NDSU into obvious passing situations and make the Bison prove they can win through the air.
Next week: North Dakota State
20. Northern Illinois 0-2
Previous: #16 · ↓ 4
Northern Illinois has now lost to Iowa and FCS Illinois State. The second loss is the one that really damages the résumé.
There is a reasonable argument that NIU can eventually recover, but right now the Huskies have no quality win and an FCS loss. That combination makes it difficult to justify moving them higher.
What Northern Illinois needs to improve: The Huskies need to become much more efficient offensively, particularly in the passing game and on third down. Against Arizona, they will face a major athleticism gap, so NIU cannot afford empty possessions. The defense needs to create negative plays and turnovers to give the offense short fields. This is essentially a résumé repair opportunity.
Next week: at Arizona
What we learned after Week 2
The Western Group of Six is already developing a few tiers.
North Dakota State and Colorado State have the strongest overall résumés, although both still have questions to answer. Boise State has perhaps the best combination of ceiling and résumé because it has already played an elite opponent and responded with a dominant win.
Then there is the fascinating middle. Oregon State is 0–2 and ranked eighth because its losses are telling us far more than its record does. Meanwhile, Utah State is also 0–2 but sits at No. 15 because one of those losses came to an FCS opponent — and Nevada, 1–1, sits three spots below the Aggies because its FCS loss came this week. That is exactly the kind of distinction the Elevation Index is designed to make.
And then there is the upcoming schedule.
Week 3 is where the Western Group of Six starts getting answers.
Colorado State gets No. 11 BYU. New Mexico gets No. 24 Oklahoma. Utah State gets No. 17 Utah. UTEP gets No. 19 Michigan. Boise State gets South Dakota. San José State and Fresno State play each other. North Dakota State travels to Sacramento State.
That is a lot more informative than another Saturday full of cupcakes.
The Elevation is about to get steeper.